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About one in three across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 30 is very important to them. Rachel Lawler is a survey analyst at the Public Policy Institute of California, where she works with the statewide survey team.
Prior to joining PPIC, she was a client manager in Kantar Millward Brown’s Dublin, Ireland office. In that role, she led and contributed to a variety of quantitative and qualitative studies for both government and corporate clients. She holds an MA in American politics and foreign policy from the University College Dublin and a BA in political science from Chapman University. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,715 California adult residents, including 1,263 interviewed on cell phones and 452 interviewed on landline telephones.
Half or more across regions approve of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his job. As Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America.
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In September 2020, just before the 2020 general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic). By bypassing the state’s general fund and the voter-approved Prop 98 education funding guarantees, Prop 30 sets a dangerous precedent for big corporations to set up their own taxpayer-funded handout. Last week, Governor Newsomsigned legislationto help protect Californians from more frequent and severe heat waves driven by climate change. This month’s legislative action comes on the heels of California enacting aworld-leading regulationto phase out sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035. Skip the hassle of listing, months of showing and juggling double mortgages. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City join the list of destinations covered by the MICHELIN Guide’s inspectors with the inaugural MICHELIN Guide Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City selection set for public release in June 2023.
We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties.
California voters have now received their mail ballots, and the November 8 general election has entered its final stage. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which party controls the US House. This map highlights the five geographic regions for which we present results; these regions account for approximately 90 percent of the state population.
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This survey was supported with funding from the Arjay and Frances F. Miller Foundation and the James Irvine Foundation. Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. Numerous questions were adapted from national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, and the Pew Research Center.
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Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of the country than they are about the direction of the state. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the United States is going in the wrong direction, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. One in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United States.
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Approval is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Central Valley. About half or more across demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%). Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say abortion rights are very important when making their choice among candidates for Congress. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called.
Additionally, we utilized a registration-based sample of landline phone numbers for adults who are registered to vote in California. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. After a household was reached, an adult respondent was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender.
Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. Margin of error ±3.9% at 95% confidence level for the total sample, ±5.1% for likely voters. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding.
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In September, a similar share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’s candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-point margin (54% to 32%). A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November 8 election, while about three in ten (32%) are not satisfied.
The sample included 569 respondents reached by calling back respondents who had previously completed an interview in PPIC Statewide Surveys in the last six months. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 14–23, 2022. The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. Deja Thomas is a survey analyst at the Public Policy Institute of California, where she works with the statewide survey team.
Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area and lowest in Orange/San Diego. About half across racial/ethnic groups approve, and approval is much higher among younger Californians. Fewer than half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these state propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 percent say the outcome of Prop 30 is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, one in four or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them.
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